Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Abstract Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties. Flexibility robustness can be used to deal with uncertainty. This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies spatial domain assess risks cost benefit three measures for four types buildings in Shanghai. Real options analysis (ROA) dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) were develop a pathway identify robust options. The results show that: (1) Sea level rise land subsidence will significantly exacerbate Shanghai; (2) Among control measures, wet-floodproofing has best economic performance terms both net present value benefit/cost ratio, followed by dry-floodproofing, elevation; (3) Dry-floodproofing at beginning period (2030–2100), it replaced 2035–2042; elevation measure also shows good implementation, but its decline after 2041–2045; (4) combined strategy dry- 2044–2046 hybrid combining should optimal solution reducing 2047–2051. methodology this provide insights coastal cities formulate cost-effective feasible strategies deeply uncertain future.